Democratization of Eastern
Europe
Leninist Legacies and
Post-Communist Dynamism
Sculpture by Gao Bros. Photo by: Ted Soqui
Gao Bros. organize World Hug Day
Notes on ÒThe Leninist Legacy and Institutional ChangeÓ by Stephen E. Hanson
Comparative Political Studies 28 (2): 306-314.
The Leninist Legacy
Phrase coined by Ken Jowitt (1992)
Predicted longer
term instability, ÒturbulenceÓ in post-Communist world
That this chaos created a
Ògenesis environmentÓ with potential for change
BUT
**that
the Leninist legacy favors anti-liberal, anti-capitalist tendencies will win
out
Why?
Lack of historical experience
with democracy
Economic upheaval
Cultural cynicism and
alienation from public life
Rise or continued influence
of Òpopulist demogoguesÓ and authoritarians
Have JowittÕs
predictions been borne out 20 years later?
Some countries have
democratized and liberalized
Others HAVE fallen under
spell of demagogues or suffered incomplete democratization and liberalization
Two Blocs
Democratic and liberal
Slovenia
Hungary
Czech Republic
Poland
Baltics
Not democratized as of 1995
Croatia
Serbia
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
Georgia
CIS
By 2012, significant progress
in
Croatia
Slovakia
Romania
Bulgaria
Still problems in
Belarus
Russia
CIS
Lesser degree
Ukraine
Georgia
What explains why some have,
some havenÕt?
Hanson says:
Degree of Òinformal
marketizationÓ prior to 1989 (land, labor and money markets)
Proximity to W markets,
investment from W
The state of the world capitalist
market at time of transition (expansion or contraction)
He also says we need to look
at ÒLeninist legacyÓ in more nuanced way
Four Kinds of Legacies
Ideological
Political
Socioeconomic
Cultural
Ideological
Easiest
Ideology was mostly DOA
Gorbachev Òrenounced coercion
as a mechanism of enforcing ideological uniformityÓ
*But shift not uniform across
region AND
*Has changed over time
% Who Approve of Transition to Multi-Party Democracy
% Who Approve of Transition
to Market Economy
2009 Pew Global Attitude Study
Political
What becomes of the former
Communist parties
Members of
Ensconced in the bureaucracy
Costs of giving up
affiliation
Regained political control PL
HU LT fairly quickly
Reformed, rebranded as social
dems
Leadership, ambition,
professionalism
Socioeconomic
Behemoth factories
Surplus industrial and
agricultural workers
Underproductivity
Poor infrastructure
Weak basis for property
rights reform
Banking
1990s Economic Change
ÒShock TherapyÓ in Poland
Source: Grzegorz W. Kolodko. 2009.
ÒA Two-Thirds of Success: PolandÕs
Post-Communist Transition, 1989-2009.Ó Communist and Post-Communist Studies. Volume 42, Issue 3
(September 2009): 325–351.
GDP per capita, PPP, 2005
constant $
Source: OECD
In transition: unemployment
Hanson predicted state of
world economy would matter
DidnÕt address EU enlargement
Cause of decline in
unemployment in East since 2004
Despite economic growth,
rises in income
People feel poorer, less
equal
Now
Cultural
Hard to change, give up
Politically
May yearn for centralism,
security, control, order, patriotism, xenophobia?
Political entrepreneurs can
capitalize on these feelings
Think of the plus side though
Among the General Population
Skills: not civic, maybe,
but bureaucratic culture
entrepreneurial, self reliant, the positive effects of
private-regarding cultures
2009 Pew Global Attitudes Survey